Here’s When Bitcoin Could Reach $10 Million Under Power Law Model

Is Bitcoin predictable jst like cities? | Source: YouTube

“Bitcoin is like a city,” Santostasi said. “Bitcoin is like tooth and nails and thorns and shells, these natural forms. To me, if you can simplify this message — and because it’s not poetry, it’s science actually, it’s based on data — it is one of the most convincing orange-pilling arguments that you can make.”

The physicist contrasted that with exponential growth, which he associated with systems that expand quickly but eventually hit resource limits. He cited corporations as an example, saying most die within 150 years, while cities such as Rome can persist for millennia. That distinction led to one of the more provocative implications of the discussion: corporations backed by Bitcoin, Santostasi suggested, could theoretically become more city-like in their durability.

“This is one of the reasons why I want Saylor to start adopting this language of a power law,” he said, referring to Strategy executive chairman Michael Saylor. “He could say exactly that. We are turning corporations into cities.”

Santostasi also argued that Bitcoin’s address growth supports the thesis. He said Bitcoin addresses have grown as a power law with time cubed, while price reacts to address growth roughly according to a square relationship, similar to Metcalfe’s Law. Combining those two relationships, he said, produces the observed price relationship of time to the sixth power.

“If you double the number of addresses, the price goes up to four,” Santostasi said. “If you triple it, it goes to nine. So it’s a power law with the square.”

That framework also leads Santostasi to reject the common view that Bitcoin adoption should be modeled primarily as an S-curve, like refrigerators, televisions or other consumer technologies. Those products, he argued, are not networks in the same way Bitcoin is. Bitcoin’s social, monetary and technical layers make it closer to the internet or a city than to a household appliance.

Bitcoin Power Law | Source: YouTube

Still, Santostasi stopped short of presenting the forecast as certainty. Asked how confident he is that Bitcoin will reach roughly $1 million per coin in about eight years and $10 million in roughly 20 years, he put the probability near 90%, while leaving room for failure conditions. He said continued capital inflows, larger institutional participation and new pools of capital are necessary for the path to remain intact.

At press time, BTC traded at $80,963.

Bitcoin must overcome the 100-week EMA, 1-week chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com