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Historical Performance Says Bitcoin Price Will Not Bottom Until It Touches This Level
TL;DR
Crypto analyst Chain Mind suggests that Bitcoin's price has not yet bottomed and is unlikely to do so without touching the EMA 300. Historical data indicates that Bitcoin typically bottoms after reaching this level, which could mean a drop to around $58,000.
Key points
- Bitcoin price has not yet bottomed.
- Historical performance indicates BTC must touch EMA 300.
- Previous bottoms were 10% and 15% below the EMA.
Crypto analyst Chain Mind has indicated that the Bitcoin price has yet to bottom. He alluded to historical performance, which shows that BTC has never bottomed without touching the EMA 300.
Bitcoin Price Unlikely To Bottom Before Touching This Level
In an X post, Chain Mind indicated that the Bitcoin price is unlikely to bottom out without first touching the EMA300. He noted that BTC has never bottomed without touching this level, as it did in 2020 and 2022, when it tagged the weekly EMA300 right before the cycle low. Specifically, Bitcoin’s bottom came 10% below the EMA in 2020 and 15% in 2022.
The analyst noted that in this cycle, the Bitcoin price bounced from $60,000 without ever reaching the EMA, suggesting the real bottom isn’t in. He added that if the pattern repeats, BTC must drop to around $58,000, marking the last bottom in this bear cycle. In another X post, the analyst indicated that BTC was mirroring the price action during the 2022 bear market.
Source: Chart from Chain Mind on X
This came as he revealed that the Bitcoin price had just rejected the 200MA, a move that also occurred in 2022. He explained that this confirms the bearish macro structure after BTC tagged the 200D MA again at $82,000. As such, if the 2022 pattern repeats, the leading crypto must drop 40% to 60% from the rejection point. He added that this means that the real cycle bottom must be around the $50,000 to $55,000 range.
Bitcoin is once again in a downtrend after failing to hold above the psychological $80,000 level. This comes amid bearish catalysts such as the US-Iran war, rising inflation, and bets of a Fed rate hike this year. BTC’s latest decline came after the SEC delayed its approval of tokenized stocks.
Q&A
What level must Bitcoin reach to potentially bottom out?
Bitcoin is expected to touch the EMA 300 before it can bottom out, which historically has been a critical level.
How much lower did Bitcoin drop below the EMA in previous cycles?
In previous cycles, Bitcoin dropped 10% below the EMA in 2020 and 15% in 2022 before reaching its bottom.
What price level is predicted for Bitcoin in this bear cycle?
If historical patterns repeat, Bitcoin may need to drop to around $58,000 to mark the bottom of this bear cycle.
