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Last Week Tonight‘s John Oliver says he won‘t placate prediction markets users
TL;DR
John Oliver criticized prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket on *Last Week Tonight*, highlighting their trivial event contracts and controversial ties to news organizations. He promised not to cater to users' bets, emphasizing the ease of manipulating outcomes in these markets.
Key points
- John Oliver criticized prediction market platforms.
- He discussed trivial event contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket.
- Oliver promised not to cater to prediction market users' bets.
Mentioned in this story
KalshiPolymarketJohn OliverDonald Trump Jr.CoinbaseBrian ArmstrongUS Commodity Futures Trading Commission
John Oliver, host of HBO’s Last Week Tonight, targeted prediction market platforms on his show’s latest weekly deep dive.
In Sunday’s airing of the HBO show, Oliver discussed some of the trivial event contracts on platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, including betting whether members of the Trump administration would use certain words in public addresses, to the companies’ controversial partnering with news organizations.
Specifically, the host questioned Donald Trump Jr.’s relationship with both platforms — an adviser to Kalshi and Polymarket — and how the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) “doesn’t even seem to be trying” to block event contracts on terrorism, assassination and war under Chair Michael Selig.
For much of the show, Oliver discussed how it is “incredibly easy for individuals to manipulate the outcomes,” citing Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong rattling off a list of crypto-related words in his third-quarter 2025 earnings call to cause many Kalshi and Polymarket users to win their bets.
“I’m going to make you a promise tonight,” said Oliver, echoing Armstrong’s statement. “I will never do anything because someone online placed a bet on it. So you can be confident that if I ever say Bitcoin, Ethereum, blockchain, staking and Web3, it won’t be because I’m trying to move markets — it will be because I’m having a stroke.”
Source: HBO Last Week Tonight
While user activity and trading volume on prediction markets have increased exponentially in recent months — expected to reach $1 trillion by 2030 — the platforms’ controversial bets and legal status in US states have raised eyebrows for some experts. Gaming authorities in several states are suing companies like Kalshi over alleged illegal sports betting, with Coinbase chief legal officer Paul Grewal and others expecting the legal fight to end up before the US Supreme Court.
Q&A
What did John Oliver say about prediction markets on Last Week Tonight?
John Oliver criticized prediction markets for trivial event contracts and their connections to news organizations, promising not to cater to users' bets.
How are Kalshi and Polymarket involved with prediction markets?
Kalshi and Polymarket are platforms that allow users to bet on the outcomes of various events, including controversial topics like terrorism and war.
What concerns did John Oliver raise about the manipulation of prediction markets?
Oliver highlighted that it is easy for individuals to manipulate outcomes in prediction markets, citing examples from Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong's earnings call.
