One bank after another scraps Fed rate-cut forecasts. Bitcoin doesn't care.

Expectations around U.S. monetary policy are shifting, but bitcoin BTC$81,003.95 appears increasingly indifferent. The cryptocurrency has pushed past the $80,000 mark, signaling that macro headwinds tied to interest rates may be losing their grip on price action.

A growing number of major brokerages now expect the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady through the year, a marked change from the earlier expectations of at least two rate cuts. Barclays joined peers in scrapping its earlier forecast for a rate cut on Monday, pointing to persistently high energy prices linked to geopolitical tensions involving Iran as an inflationary development. Other global firms, including JPMorgan, have similarly pushed back against expectations of policy easing.

Under normal circumstances, a higher-for-longer rate outlook would weigh on risk assets. Still, BTC continues to gain ground. Some analysts argue the asset is increasingly being treated as a hedge against inflation, supported by continued inflows into spot ETFs even as inflation fears mount. Others remain skeptical, attributing the rally more to strength in equities than to any structural shift in crypto demand.

For now, momentum appears to favor the bulls.

"From a market structure standpoint, we are seeing traders closely watch the $81,500 resistance level, while the CME futures gap around $84,000 remains a key zone for potential upside. These technical levels, combined with macro developments, will likely guide near-term price action," said Ashish Singhal, co-founder of the FIU-registered CoinSwitch exchange.

Technical indicators reinforce that view. The 200-day simple moving average (SMA), which is often seen as a dividing line between longer-term bearish and bullish trends, is located near $83,430. So, a decisive move above it could strengthen the case for further upside.

The broader market is also showing signs of selective strength. Bitcoin’s roughly 2% gain to around $80,700 has been accompanied by outsized moves in certain altcoins. Toncoin (TON) has surged about 35%, while MORPHO and PENGU have gained 11% and 9%, respectively. On the weaker side, Dash has slipped slightly. Larger tokens such as ether, XRP, and solana have largely tracked bitcoin’s modest advance.

At the same time, sentiment is sitting at a critical juncture. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has climbed to 50, right at the midpoint of its range, a level last seen in mid-January.

"The market is approaching a significant turning point. Since last October, there have been only brief surges in sentiment to higher levels, but these have provided excellent opportunities for bears to sell at higher prices," said Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro. Stay alert!