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Polymarket odds of Hormuz Strait traffic normalizing by end of May spike to 73%
TL;DR
Polymarket odds for traffic normalization in the Strait of Hormuz by the end of May have risen to 73% after Iranian officials announced the strait is temporarily open. The odds peaked at 82% following the announcement but have since decreased.
Key points
- Polymarket odds for Strait of Hormuz normalization reached 73%
- Odds peaked at 82% after Iranian officials' announcement
- Strait of Hormuz is temporarily open for commercial vessels
Mentioned in this story
PolymarketSeyed Abbas AraghchiStrait of Hormuz
Polymarket prediction market odds of the Strait of Hormuz “returning to normal” by the end of May spiked to 73% on Friday, following news that Iranian officials have temporarily opened up the Strait of Hormuz as part of a ceasefire deal.
The odds climbed to a high of 82% on Friday, after Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi announced that the Strait of Hormuz is open. Since that time, the odds have fallen back down to 73%. He said in an X post:
“The passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of the ceasefire, on the coordinated route as already announced by the Ports and Maritime Organization of the Islamic Republic of Iran.”
Polymarket odds for oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal by the end of May 2026. Source: Polymarket
However, traders on the platform placed the odds of the Strait returning to normal activity by the end of April at just 40%.
The war in Iran sent shockwaves through financial markets, impacting crypto and energy prices, as investors and financial analysts react to political developments in the ongoing conflict.
Related: Iran conflict hints Bitcoin’s addressable market could exceed gold: Bitwise
Q&A
What are the current Polymarket odds for Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization?
The current Polymarket odds for the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal traffic by the end of May are at 73%.
Why did the odds for Strait of Hormuz traffic spike to 82%?
The odds spiked to 82% after Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi announced that the Strait of Hormuz is open for commercial vessels as part of a ceasefire deal.
What did Iranian officials say about the Strait of Hormuz's status?
Iranian officials declared that the passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz is completely open during the ceasefire period.
