Polymarket odds of Hormuz Strait traffic normalizing by end of May spike to 73%
TL;DR
Polymarket odds for traffic normalization in the Strait of Hormuz by the end of May have risen to 73% after Iranian officials announced the strait is temporarily open. The odds peaked at 82% following the announcement but have since decreased.
Key points
- Polymarket odds for Strait of Hormuz normalization reached 73%
- Odds peaked at 82% after Iranian officials' announcement
- Strait of Hormuz is temporarily open for commercial vessels
Mentioned in this story
Polymarket prediction market odds of the Strait of Hormuz “returning to normal” by the end of May spiked to 73% on Friday, following news that Iranian officials have temporarily opened up the Strait of Hormuz as part of a ceasefire deal.
The odds climbed to a high of 82% on Friday, after Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi announced that the Strait of Hormuz is open. Since that time, the odds have fallen back down to 73%. He said in an X post:
“The passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of the ceasefire, on the coordinated route as already announced by the Ports and Maritime Organization of the Islamic Republic of Iran.”
Polymarket odds for oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal by the end of May 2026. Source: Polymarket
However, traders on the platform placed the odds of the Strait returning to normal activity by the end of April at just 40%.
The war in Iran sent shockwaves through financial markets, impacting crypto and energy prices, as investors and financial analysts react to political developments in the ongoing conflict.
Related: Iran conflict hints Bitcoin’s addressable market could exceed gold: Bitwise
Bitcoin rises on the ceasefire news, but the truce is “fragile”
The price of Bitcoin (BTC) surged on Friday in response to the temporary reopening of the Strait under the ceasefire, briefly tapping $78,000 before climbing down to about $77,358, the price at the time of publication.
The price of Bitcoin surged after Iranian officials announced that the Strait of Hormuz would remain open during the ceasefire. Source: TradingView
Crypto market analyst Nic Puckrin told Cointelegraph that the ceasefire between the US and Iran announced in April is “fragile” and that core issues remain unresolved.
The fallout from the conflict will likely cast a shadow over financial markets for most of 2026, pushing back any interest rate cuts to Q3 2026 at the earliest, if rate cuts materialize at all this year, Puckrin said.
“A ceasefire that results in the end of geopolitical tensions, a sustained drop in oil prices toward $80, and ideally also softer-than-expected economic data that calms stagflation fears” are all needed for BTC to reclaim the $90,000 level, he said.
US President Donald Trump said on Friday that the US naval blockade on Iran would “remain in full force and effect” until the “transaction with Iran is 100% complete.”
Magazine: Should users be allowed to bet on war and death in prediction markets?
Q&A
What are the current Polymarket odds for Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization?
The current Polymarket odds for the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal traffic by the end of May are at 73%.
Why did the odds for Strait of Hormuz traffic spike to 82%?
The odds spiked to 82% after Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi announced that the Strait of Hormuz is open for commercial vessels as part of a ceasefire deal.
What did Iranian officials say about the Strait of Hormuz's status?
Iranian officials declared that the passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz is completely open during the ceasefire period.
