Trader Who Predicted 700% XRP Rally is 'Cautiously Optimistic' Again; Strategy CEO Issues Bitcoin Teaser as BTC Price Unlocks $96,600 Outlook; Dogecoin Targets 34% Upside with Zero ETF Inflows - Morning Crypto Report

Bitcoin price outlook by DonAlt, Source: Donalt's X

What we are seeing is a false breakdown of the previous local low. The trader points out that the market "collected liquidity" below and quickly returned above the level, a pattern that often precedes extended upside. The nearest major resistance zones are identified in the $90,000–$100,000 range.

A notable angle in DonAlt's view is the rejection of traditional four-year cycle theories, actively promoted by analysts such as Benjamin Cowen. According to the trader, attempts to force the market into rigid time frameworks distort objective analysis.

Don't really think or care about it

I buy when I think it'll probably go up, sell when I think it probably goes down

Cool when that aligns with other theories, couldn't care less when it doesn't

— DonAlt (@DonAlt) April 22, 2026

At present, one of the most accurate forecasters of past cycles maintains a stance of cautious optimism. The market has cleared excess emotion, and as long as the Bitcoin price holds above the psychological $60,000 level, the bullish scenario remains dominant despite widespread skepticism.

Strategy hints at increasing Bitcoin exposure via STRC, while BTC targets $96,600

Against the backdrop of DonAlt's cautious optimism, Strategy continues aggressive execution of its treasury strategy. CEO Phong Le reinforced investor interest with a brief teaser, stating he "looks forward to strong STRC performance for Bitcoin".

It is no secret that the primary expansion tool in April has been the STRC mechanism (perpetual Stretch shares). According to strc.live and corporate disclosures from April 6 to April 17, the company accumulated 26,377 BTC worth approximately $2 billion. Strategy now controls over 815,000 BTC, strengthening its position as the largest public holder of the asset.

Looking forward to a good $STRC for Bitcoin.

— Phong Le (@phongle) April 22, 2026

Strategy's positioning and Phong Le's outlook are also supported by the technical structure. While Bitcoin trades near $78,300, analysts point to a foundation forming for a move toward $96,600 following a breakout above the Bollinger mid-band and upper structure on the weekly chart.

Margin of safety: according to management estimates, the strategy remains resilient unless Bitcoin falls below a critical level of $8,000 for an extended period - a scenario currently viewed as unlikely.

If BTC indeed targets the upper band near $100,000, the company would not only avoid losses but could generate unrealized gains exceeding the market capitalization of many S&P 500 firms, with BTC holdings valued at around $78.73 billion.

Dogecoin signals a potential 34% technical move despite ETF stagnation

The steady rise of Bitcoin is accompanied by renewed activity across major altcoins. Dogecoin is forming a classic mean-reversion setup. The absence of major fund inflows does not prevent the asset from targeting substantial upside, driven by organic activity and historical behavior.

On the charts, DOGE has printed a "golden cross" for the first time in a long period, signaling the end of the extended correction from late 2025. The main price magnet is now the 200-day moving average at $0.132. From current levels near $0.098, the asset would need to gain about 34%.

This move is supported by broader market activity and correlation with Bitcoin, which typically leads top altcoins after April holiday periods.

Dogecoin price chart with 200-day moving average (red), Source: TradingView

Data from SoSoValue highlights a paradox: the potential upside is forming with minimal fund participation. The last recorded inflow into Dogecoin ETFs was on April 14, totaling just $187,310.

At present, the entire DOGE ETF sector holds only $10.93 million, representing just 0.08% of the asset's total market capitalization. The leading fund remains Grayscale's GDOG with $6.89 million in net assets.

Total DOGE Spot ETF Net Inflow, Source: SoSoValue

Despite weak ETF engagement, on-chain metrics indicate preparation for a move. Over the past week, active addresses increased by 28%, while large holders accumulated around 330 million DOGE in recent days.

If the asset secures a position above the psychological $0.10 level, the path toward $0.132 opens. The market demonstrates that rallies in meme assets do not always require Wall Street capital - technical conditions and retail conviction can be sufficient. However, ETF flows remain relevant, as renewed inflows could accelerate this projected 34% move.

Crypto market outlook: BlackRock, Bitcoin, and bullish breakout

As of April 22, 2026, the market is in a bullish breakout phase. Bitcoin has exited a prolonged consolidation and trades near $78,000, supported by corporate accumulation and easing geopolitical tension.

Key checkpoints:

• Bitcoin trades at $78,304 (+2.2% over 24 hours). A break above $77,000 triggered a cascade of short liquidations, opening the path toward the psychological $80,000 level.
• Institutional flows: net inflows into crypto ETFs on April 21 totaled $11.84 million. BlackRock (IBIT) dominated with an additional purchase of 521.38 BTC worth $39.34 million, while most other funds recorded outflows.
• April 24: expiration of $10 billion in BTC and ETH options.
• April 28-29: FOMC meeting and Federal Reserve decision on interest rates. The rate is expected to remain at 3.50–3.75%.
• Markets will monitor Jerome Powell's tone closely. Any dovish signal could trigger a move toward $85,000–$90,000 by the end of April.