XRP consolidation may transform into explosive rally if $1.40 is topped: Data

XRP (XRP) has consolidated within a tight price range below $1.40 over the past 20 days, but new data suggests it may be poised for a bullish breakout after a shift in Binance activity signals reduced sell-side pressure.

Binance’s withdrawal and deposit activity is flashing a setup that mirrors June 2025, when the altcoin embarked on a rally to $3.65.

XRP/USDT on the one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

XRP Binance deposits drop to 2025 lows

Crypto analyst Amr Taha noted a shift in XRP activity on Binance, with transaction flows moving away from deposit-heavy behavior. The seven-day average shows XRP withdrawals rising to 53% while deposits dropped to 46%, returning to the levels last seen in June 2025.

Binance daily deposit/withdrawal transactions. Source: CryptoQuant

That prior setup aligned with a 65% XRP rally to all-time highs of $3.65 in July 2025, placing the current shift on traders’ radar.

The falling deposit activity signals fewer coins moving onto exchanges, while rising withdrawals indicate assets leaving exchanges. This reduces immediate sell-side pressure if sustained over multiple trading sessions.

Currently, XRP flow on Binance is no longer dominated by incoming supply. This indicates a change in trader positioning, with fewer participants preparing to sell into the market.

Meanwhile, liquidity has contracted sharply. CryptoQuant data shows XRP's 30-day liquidity index on Binance dropping to 0.053, the lowest level since 2021. The 30-day trading volume stands at nearly 3.77 billion XRP, marking one of the weakest periods of activity in recent years.

XRP Binance liquidity index. Source: CryptoQuant

The price action aligns with this slowdown. XRP trades near $1.38 with limited movement over the past three weeks, consistent with a quieter order book and reduced trader participation. These lower-liquidity phases may coalesce momentum and precede a stronger directional move once activity returns.

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XRP traders position in futures markets

While XRP price consolidates, onchain data shows an aggregated spot cumulative volume delta (CVD) of -$153 million and a futures CVD near -$295 million, pointing to a reduction in aggressive selling.

XRP price, aggregated open interest, funding, spot, and futures CVD. Source: velo.chart

The buy-side activity has not expanded, keeping the price movement muted. The funding rates have turned slightly positive at 0.06%, signaling a mild long bias.

Open interest has climbed to nearly $769 million, suggesting fresh positions are entering the market.

XRP/USDT on the one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

From a technical perspective, a daily close above $1.40 opens the door to $1.60–$1.67. That $1.40 level also aligns with the 50-day moving average, which may flip into support on a bullish breakout.

The liquidation data shows roughly $250–$300 million in cumulative long/short positions at risk within a 10% move in either direction. Compared to larger assets like BTC (BTC) and Ether (ETH), the liquidity is relatively small, suggesting lower trader participation near $1.40.

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