
Bitcoin Rally May Be A Trap As Whales Sell Into Strength
Bitcoin's rise to $75,000 could be a bear market trap as whales sell into strength.

A CryptoQuant analyst indicates that Bitcoin's recent recovery resembles a bear market rally, based on on-chain metrics. The recovery coincides with an increase in long-term holder supply after a period of consolidation.
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A CryptoQuant analyst has explained how the recent Bitcoin recovery has still looked like a bear market rally based on signals in on-chain metrics.
In a new thread on X, CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has discussed the recent recovery run that Bitcoin has witnessed. This surge has arrived after BTC stabilized into a consolidation range following its low at the start of February.
On-chain data suggests that this bottoming process started alongside an uptick in the supply of the long-term holders (LTHs). The LTHs are defined as investors who have been holding onto their tokens since more than 155 days ago.
As the below chart shows, the 30-day change in the supply of this Bitcoin cohort was negative between mid-2025 and January 2026, indicating that the diamond hands of the network were distributing their coins.
Looks like the LTH supply has been going up in recent weeks | Source: @JA_Maartun on X
Since the end of January, however, the metric has flipped negative, a sign that coins have been becoming a part of the LTH supply. Note that this metric has a 155-day delay attached between when buying occurred and when it reflects on the data since coins first have to be held for 155 days before they can be classified into the group. As such, the green netflow doesn’t imply accumulation that’s occurring in the present.
What it does suggest, however, is that the market has seen the rise of HODLing conviction as BTC has settled into the consolidation phase. In the last month, 345,000 BTC has matured into the group. “That’s structural strength building under the surface,” noted Maartunn.
While the latest price recovery has come alongside a surge in the Bitcoin LTH supply, it has also been met with selling pressure. The short-term holders (STHs), investors with a holding time of 155 days or lower, sent about 60,000 BTC to exchanges.
A bear market rally refers to a temporary increase in asset prices during a longer-term downtrend, suggesting that the recovery may not be sustainable.
The supply of long-term holders has increased, indicating that investors who have held Bitcoin for over 155 days are not selling their assets.
On-chain metrics show a negative change in the supply of long-term holders prior to the recent recovery, suggesting distribution of coins by these investors.

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The data for the exchange inflows related to the STHs | Source: @JA_Maartun on X
Another metric shows that STHs have been transferring their Bitcoin at a loss recently, suggesting that they have still been exiting at a loss despite the recovery surge. Distribution has not just come from the STHs, but also the large entities holding more than 100 BTC in their wallets, who have seen their exchange inflows pick up.
The selling pressure from these groups could be why the Bitcoin rally hasn’t been able to push higher despite the trend in the LTH supply and the accumulation from Strategy. “For now, this still looks like a bear market rally…” said Maartunn. “But a strong breakout could quickly shift the trend.”
Bitcoin surged above $78,000 last week, but the asset has since seen a setback as its price has dropped to $75,300.
The trend in the price of the coin over the last five days | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com