Bitcoin Rally May Be A Trap As Whales Sell Into Strength
Bitcoin's rise to $75,000 could be a bear market trap as whales sell into strength.
NewsBTC1 min read
Bitcoin Recovery Still Looks Like A Bear Market Rally, Analyst Says
TL;DR
A CryptoQuant analyst indicates that Bitcoin's recent recovery resembles a bear market rally, based on on-chain metrics. The recovery coincides with an increase in long-term holder supply after a period of consolidation.
Key points
- Bitcoin's recovery is viewed as a bear market rally
- Increase in long-term holder supply observed
- Recovery follows a period of price consolidation
Mentioned in this story
CryptoQuantMaartunn
A CryptoQuant analyst has explained how the recent Bitcoin recovery has still looked like a bear market rally based on signals in on-chain metrics.
Bitcoin Recovery Has Come Alongside A Rise In The LTH Supply
In a new thread on X, CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has discussed the recent recovery run that Bitcoin has witnessed. This surge has arrived after BTC stabilized into a consolidation range following its low at the start of February.
On-chain data suggests that this bottoming process started alongside an uptick in the supply of the long-term holders (LTHs). The LTHs are defined as investors who have been holding onto their tokens since more than 155 days ago.
As the below chart shows, the 30-day change in the supply of this Bitcoin cohort was negative between mid-2025 and January 2026, indicating that the diamond hands of the network were distributing their coins.
Looks like the LTH supply has been going up in recent weeks | Source: @JA_Maartun on X
Since the end of January, however, the metric has flipped negative, a sign that coins have been becoming a part of the LTH supply. Note that this metric has a 155-day delay attached between when buying occurred and when it reflects on the data since coins first have to be held for 155 days before they can be classified into the group. As such, the green netflow doesn’t imply accumulation that’s occurring in the present.
What it does suggest, however, is that the market has seen the rise of HODLing conviction as BTC has settled into the consolidation phase. In the last month, 345,000 BTC has matured into the group. “That’s structural strength building under the surface,” noted Maartunn.
While the latest price recovery has come alongside a surge in the Bitcoin LTH supply, it has also been met with selling pressure. The short-term holders (STHs), investors with a holding time of 155 days or lower, sent about 60,000 BTC to exchanges.
Q&A
What does it mean for Bitcoin recovery to be a bear market rally?
A bear market rally refers to a temporary increase in asset prices during a longer-term downtrend, suggesting that the recovery may not be sustainable.
How has the supply of long-term holders (LTHs) changed recently?
The supply of long-term holders has increased, indicating that investors who have held Bitcoin for over 155 days are not selling their assets.
What on-chain metrics are indicating a bear market for Bitcoin?
On-chain metrics show a negative change in the supply of long-term holders prior to the recent recovery, suggesting distribution of coins by these investors.
