
Ripple Price Prediction: Why XRP Is Lagging Hard—And What It Must Do to Catch Up
XRP is lagging behind Bitcoin's surge—what's holding it back?

A record 1.23% of XRP supply, worth $1.08 billion, is now unavailable due to U.S. spot ETFs, creating a supply deficit. Bitcoin's price is fragile after an $8.47 billion options expiry, hovering near $78,000. A SHIB whale has begun selling 20 billion tokens, indicating a possible exit strategy.
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TL;DR
While crypto community attention remains fixed on Bitcoin price action, a key fundamental shift has occurred in the XRP market. By the end of April 2026, U.S. spot ETFs had accumulated a record 1.23% of the total XRP supply, equivalent to $1.08 billion in value, according to SoSoValue.
Over the past 24 hours, net inflows into funds reached $3.89 million. The main driver was the Franklin Templeton fund (XRPZ), which absorbed the entirety of this figure.

Total XRP Spot ETF Net Inflow since March, Source: SoSoValue
The current dynamic stands out because April fully offset March's negative trend. Tokens are moving off exchanges into custodial storage for long-term holding, creating a hidden supply deficit. In less than a month, more than $71 million in fresh capital has been "parked" in XRP ETFs.
1.23% of the total XRP supply is now unavailable due to U.S. spot ETFs.
Bitcoin's price is currently around $78,000 following an $8.47 billion options expiry.
The whale transferred an initial 20 billion Shiba Inu coins to Coinone.
The XRP supply shock could create a structural supply deficit, potentially influencing its price and market dynamics.

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In this context, the current price around $1.43 reflects a balance between institutional accumulation and retail caution. However, beneath the surface, structural compression is forming. With current absorption rates maintained, about 787 million XRP already under fund management, any positive development, for example around the CLARITY Act, could meet low available supply.
The crypto market has turned the page on one of the largest events of the month. On Deribit, options contracts worth $9.8 billion expired. Despite Bitcoin holding well above the Max Pain level, its price behavior has taken on signs of deceptive fragility.
At the moment of expiration at 08:00 UTC, the setup was clear. BTC traded around $77,900, nearly $6,000 above the $72,000 Max Pain point. This is a rare case where call option buyers not only dominated but exited expiration with significant profit.
However, this success created a liquidity trap. Immediately after obligations were cleared, the market showed classic inertia. A brief move of 0.53% pushed BTC to $78,000, followed almost instantly by a 0.66% pullback, showing a lack of fuel to hold above this psychological level.
Open interest by Strike Price for Bitcoin before today's expiry, Source: Deribit
The main risk now is not falling demand, but a change in market structure. Before expiration, market makers had to support positions through dynamic hedging. Once $8.47 billion in BTC options expired, that forced support disappeared.
Bitcoin is now in a "vacuum state", like XRP but a different one. It is free from options pressure but lacks the protective buffer of market makers. The risks are the same too - any large market order can now trigger a disproportionately sharp price move.
One of the largest private wallets, "0x9d9f823F", holding 1.66 trillion tokens, broke months of inactivity and began moving assets to an exchange. Arkham data confirms the whale has already sent an initial 20 billion SHIB to Coinone's hot wallet.
This address is a heavyweight within the SHIB ecosystem. Its total portfolio exceeds $10.25 million, with the majority allocated to Shiba Inu.
The 20 billion SHIB transfer is valued at about $120,000 to $150,000 at current prices.

Wallet "0x9d9f823F" transfers with Shiba Inu (SHIB), Source: Arkham
Until now, the wallet had remained almost completely inactive for months, making it one of the largest dormant holders. Even after this transaction, the whale still holds more than 1.66 trillion SHIB, representing a significant share of circulating supply.
These actions come amid a difficult market environment for SHIB in April 2026. The token trades around $0.000006, showing only marginal growth of 0.41% over the past 24 hours.
The appearance of such a large potential seller on Coinone may intensify bearish sentiment. Yes, the transfer of 20 billion tokens represents only 1.2% of the wallet's holdings, but the fact that funds started moving after a long pause often signals a change in strategy.
If these test sales continue, they could create excess supply on Coinone, which the market would need to absorb amid relatively low trading volume of $76.67 million.
BTC ends the week up 5.85% from Monday's open. The current impulse is driven by returning institutional demand, led by BlackRock IBIT, and the completion of a whale distribution phase. Despite the proximity of the $80,000 psychological level, ETF inflows and exchange liquidity scarcity outweigh geopolitical uncertainty.
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